By Ezinwanne Onwuka
President Joe Biden’s State Department is staying in lock step with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu regarding possible incursion into sister-nation Niger, despite broad pushback from Nigerian elites and growing criticism from nations in West Africa’s so-called Coup Belt. Since 2021 three other West African nations have changed regimes through military coups.
Tinubu leads the 15 nation Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) which has agreed to mobilize a coalition of military troops to threaten Niger unless it reverses the result of its military takeover on July 26.
Nigerien soldiers on July 26 unseated the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum and held him hostage. Two days after the military takeover, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the commander of the Nigerien presidential guard, named himself as the new leader. A UN spokesman added drama on Friday by reporting that the Junta threatened to execute the democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, if the ECOWAS attacked Niger.
If uranium-rich Niger backs out of its alliance with the United States, it may put Washington in a quandary regarding finding future stocks of uranium at a time when uranium sentiment is rising. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/uranium-stocks-etfs-and-other-ways-to-invest-in-the-nuclear-fuel
According to some sources, the United States would like to back away from uranium purchases from the Russian Federation, which currently supplies 14 percent of U.S. consumption. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/21/uranium-imports-russia-nuclear/
The coup generated tensions between Niger’s new military regime and the rest of the world.
Notwithstanding the lack of support from Nigerians, the United States government has backed ECOWAS’ efforts to push the coup leaders to relinquish power and free Bazoum, who is being detained in his residence. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a press statement, commended “the determination of ECOWAS to explore all options for the peaceful resolution of the crisis.”
A dismayed Joe Biden described Bazoum’s overthrow as “a grave challenge to its (Niger’s) democracy” and called for the immediate release of the detained Bazoum and the return to civilian-led governance in the country. Biden’s Nigerian counterpart, Bola Tinubu, who also chairs ECOWAS, conveyed the resolve of West African leaders to defend democracy in Niger.
“The ECOWAS leadership will not accept any action that impedes the smooth functioning of legitimate authority in Niger or any part of West Africa,” the Nigerian President said in a statement, July 26, hours after news of the coup made headlines.
In what seemed like proof that the regional bloc was not all bark and no bite, ECOWAS subsequently imposed harsh sanctions against Niger, including a no-fly zone and border closures. It also gave the Tchiani-led military government a one-week ultimatum to reinstate Bazoum, by August 6, or risk military intervention. To further mount pressure on the coup leaders, Nigeria, which supplies 70 per cent of Niger’s electricity, cut off the power supply, plunging the 27-million-strong population into darkness.
Yet, General Tchiani refused to bow to pressure and is giving no sign that he is willing to back down.
In a televised address on August 2, the self-appointed new leader of Niger described the ECOWAS-issued sanctions as “illegal, unfair, inhuman and unprecedented.” He went ahead to say that the junta “rejects these sanctions altogether and refuses to give in to any threats, wherever they come from. We refuse any interference in the internal affairs of Niger”.
With the expiration of the seven-day ultimatum and the defiance of the military leaders, the leaders of ECOWAS’ member-states met in Abuja on August 10 to chart a clear path out of the crisis in Niger. They resolved to “activate the ECOWAS Standby Force with all its elements immediately”, should the calls for a peaceful restoration of democracy continue to be ignored and no action to that effect taken by the Nigerien junta.
It wasn’t disclosed when or where the force will be deployed and how the force would be funded. It is also unclear which countries from the 15-member bloc would be mobilising troops for the intervention. But Senegal, Benin Republic and the Ivory Coast are so far the only West African nations that have said they would provide troops for such an intervention. Nigeria presumably would as well, but Tinubu’s plan has faced opposition in Nigeria.
The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) says it is not in support of the proposed military intervention in Niger. Archbishop Daniel Okoh, the President of CAN, in a statement issued August 10, urged “His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to remain on the path of dialogue and avoid any form of military intervention or measures that would create enmity between the good people of Nigeria and Niger.”
“We believe that peaceful resolution of conflict is vital for the progress and well-being of our nations and our people,” Archbishop Okoh stressed.
CAN is not the only sceptic of military intervention. A Nigerian government think tank, Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) warned that any military intervention would be costly. “A military intervention aimed at regime change in Niger is costly and infeasible and would lead to catastrophically counterproductive consequences for West Africa,” it said in an 11-page document seen by TruthNigeria.
“ECOWAS should not only suspend the military option but also prohibit any military intervention in Niger by foreign forces as that will likely turn the country into a vortex of instability in the region. The situation should be addressed using non-military and diplomatic,” OSPRE advised.
Joining the discussion, Nigeria’s lawmaker Orji Uzor Kalu said via a tweet that “Fighting a war in Niger Republic is not necessary as no one is sure of the sponsors and how it would end.” Kalu added: “Niger Republic is at our backyard and Nigeria should not join ECOWAS’ plan of military invasion…No Nigerian soldier deserves to die in another country because of war.”
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Ezinwanne Onwuka is an investigative reporter who contributes news on politics and culture from Abuja.
