Premature Victory Celebrations Favor Insurgent Narrative: Experts
By Segun Onibiyo and Steven Kefas
(Kaduna), ANALYSIS: Despite military claims of defeating Lakurawa militants in northwestern Nigeria, local residents told TruthNigeria that the jihadist group continues to operate openly in their communities, raising questions about government credibility.
Ground Reality Contradicts Official Claims
In the dusty outskirts of Gwazanye village in Sokoto State’s Gudu Local Government Area, life continues under the shadow of terror. Just days after Nigeria’s Defence Ministry trumpeted victory over the Lakurawa jihadist group, residents paint a starkly different picture of reality on the ground.
“We still see them in our villages. They come around to buy consumables and sometimes still harass civilians. Even on Friday, we saw their members around, and you dare not say anything,” says Salisu Maigoro, a resident of Gwazanye community who spoke exlusively to TruthNigeria.
The Victory Announcement
The stark contradiction between official claims and ground reality emerged after Defence Minister Abubakar Badaru’s November 20 announcement declaring significant victories against Lakurawa through airstrikes. The group, whose name derives from the French word “la recrue” (meaning “the recruit”), has established a strong presence in Kebbi and Sokoto states, occupying more than 7 local government areas (counties).
Daily Terror on Local Routes
The impact of their continued presence is perhaps best illustrated through the experience of Abdullahi Mahmud, a commercial driver on the Kamba-Sabon Birni route. “When we got to Kamba road, heavily armed Lakurawa members stopped us,” he recounts to TruthNigeria. “They ordered everyone out when they noticed women and men sitting together. They separated us by gender, men seated separately from women, including couples before letting me drive away.”
Such incidents directly challenge the ministry’s victory narrative and add to a growing list of premature victory declarations by Nigerian security forces. The pattern is reminiscent of multiple premature announcements of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau’s death, long before his eventual suicide during a clash with ISWAP fighters.
Expert Analysis
Dr. Walid Abdullahi, a security expert based in Birnin-Kebbi, sees this as part of a troubling pattern. “The government is more interested in media victory than actual victory against the group,” he observes. “They rushed to the media to claim victory, but things should be done differently. Government should be more responsible and truthful.”
The expert’s criticism points to a deeper issue: the apparent disconnect between media announcements and sustained military operations necessary for genuine counterterrorism success. “This development means the operation was only in the media and not in the forests where Lakurawa have their camps,” Dr. Abdullahi adds.
Truth Nigeria had reported that Lakurawa comprises a group of about a thousand fighters from Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Libya who came into Nigeria through its many porous borders with Niger republic approximately six years ago.
Military’s Position
An anonymous source within the military told TruthNigeria, “this is a fight that has just begun. We know there will be denials by the Lakurawa terrorist group on the effect of military efforts against them. But that does not negate the fact that we are taking the fight to them right in their strongholds,” according to the source.
“I cannot say we have won or that we are where we should be, but we are making strong push to neutralize them from the areas they occupy,” the source went on to say.”
“We know too that this group have sympathizers within the political and military class. Which has made the fight a bit difficult. We are leaving no stone unturned to achieve victory, no matter how long it takes” the unnamed source said.
Impact on Counter-terrorism Efforts
Mohammed Ibrahim, a conflict researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Abuja, suggests that declarations of premature victory could actually benefit terrorist groups.
“When the government repeatedly makes false claims about defeating these groups, it inadvertently strengthens their narrative and makes them appear more resilient than they are,” he explains to TruthNigeria.
Community Perspectives
For residents of affected communities, the consequences of this media-versus-reality gap are daily concerns about safety and security. A community leader in Tangaza, speaking on condition of anonymity, explains: “We need real military action, not just announcements. Our people live in fear while officials in Abuja claim victory.” He told TruthNigeria.
The Way Forward
As Lakurawa continues to operate in Kebbi and Sokoto states, the incident raises broader questions about Nigeria’s counter-terrorism strategy and the government’s approach to public communication on security matters. The gap between official claims and ground realities not only undermines public trust but potentially compromises the effectiveness of future security operations.
With the region’s security hanging in the balance, the need for a more transparent and sustained approach to counter-terrorism operations become increasingly apparent. “Victory over terrorism requires more than just media announcements – it demands consistent action, honest reporting, and sustained engagement with affected communities,” Dr. Abdullahi says.
The persistence of Lakurawa’s activities in northwestern Nigeria serves as a stark reminder that defeating insurgency requires more than military operations and media declarations. It demands a comprehensive, sustained, and honest approach that acknowledges both successes and challenges in the ongoing fight against terrorism.
Segun Onibiyo and Steven Kefas are conflict reporters for TruthNigeria.
