Larger Armed Forces Needed: Experts
By Mike Odeh James
(Abuja) Nigeria’s military is facing mounting pressure to contain the growing threat of terrorist groups, including Fulani terrorists, Boko Haram, Islamic State In West African Province ISWAP, Ansaru, Lakurawa, and Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).
The latest attacks have raised concerns about the military’s effectiveness in combating these threats. On January 1, 2025, Fulani terrorists attacked several communities in Kajuru County, Kaduna State, displacing thousands of Christians and killing many others.
In a related development, at least 46 people, including women and children, were kidnapped by Fulani terrorists in Gana town, Zamfara State on Sunday, January 5, 2025 around 10 pm. The dozens of gunmen on motorcycles set fire to homes and businesses. Security sources interviewed by TruthNigeria suggested that the mass kidnappings in both states was intended to terrorize local people in a bid to make them surrender to gang control, and beyond that, to intimidate the Federal Government.
The Northwest region of Nigeria has suffered a severe security crisis, for years with terrorist and bandit groups numbering as high as 30,000 gunmen since 2012.
In the Northeast, Boko Haram terrorists launched a devastating attack on a military base in Damboa, Borno State, on Jan. 4, killing dozens of soldiers and vigilantes, and carting away military weapons. The attack targeted the Forward Operating Base in Sabon Gari area, with the insurgents using surveillance drones to scan the location beforehand.
The incessant attacks have raised concerns about whether the Nigerian military is overwhelmed by the sheer number of terrorist groups operating in the country.
Nigeria has been battling Boko Haram and its offshoots since 2009, with the group responsible for the displacement of 2.5 million Nigerians and the deaths of more than 30,000 people. The military has been working to contain the threat, but the recent attacks have highlighted the need for a more effective strategy to address the growing security challenges facing the country.
Is Nigeria’s Military Short of Fighting Forces?
Many Nigerians are asking why is the country’s military not getting a proper grip of the situation? Some say the country does not have enough men under arms to contain and to defeat the security challenges. According to the CIA Factbook of 2024, Nigeria’s armed forces include 135,000 active-duty personnel. These include 100,000 army, 20,000 Navy/Coast Guard: and 15,000 Air Force. Supporting security forces include 80,000 security and civil defense corps and approximately 370,000 police (2023).
But estimates of force strength vary. Nigeria’s former defense minister, Bashir Salihi Magashi in February 2023 expressed concerns that the country’s military was overstretched due to inadequate manpower and numerous security challenges. According to Magashi, Nigeria’s military strength of about 223,000 personnel (which includes 100,000 local militia) was insufficient to effectively address the country’s security challenges, particularly considering its estimated population of 220 million people.
Retired Naval Officer Captain Umar Bakori, who also serves as the National Coordinator of the Vigilante Group of Nigeria, shares similar views. As the Commander General of the Vigilante Group of Nigeria, Captain Bakori tells TruthNigeria in an interview that the country needs an overwhelming force in order to properly tackle mounting insecurity in the country.
“The military should recruit more men; the current numbers are just not enough. For a country of over 200 million, at least, 1.5 million men and women as part of Nigeria’s military would suffice, Bakori added.
Nigeria’s Mini Wars Spreading Military Thin
Friday Agbo, Managing Director of Alterconsult Limited, a Northern think tank, shared his insights on the conflicts in Nigeria, highlighting how these conflicts have overextended the military. In an exclusive interview Agbo emphasized the need to address the root causes of these conflicts, which have resulted in the military being spread too thin.
“If you look the Northeast, the military is deployed to Borno, Yobe, Adawama and Taraba states fighting Boko Haram and Fulani Ethnic Militia members.
“In the Northcentral, the military is in Plateau, Benue and Nasarawa states trying to contain the Fulani ethnic militia (FEM),” Agbo said.
Agbo noted that the Nigerian military is overstretched, deployed across various states to tackle numerous security challenges.
“Currently, troops are on the ground in Kaduna, Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, and Kebbi battling Fulani terrorists and Lakurawas,” Agbo went on to say.
In the Southeast, “the military is in Imo, Ebonyi, and Abia,” while in the Niger Delta, “the Nigerian Armed Forces are heavily present trying to prevent oil bunkering as well as trying to prevent Niger Delta militants from declaring a state within Nigeria,” he added.
Agbo concluded that “from my observation, the Nigerian military is deployed in no less than 30 states of the Nigerian Federation.”
What is to be done?
Retired Navy Captain Umar Bakori suggests that while the military is stretched thin, it’s not overwhelmed. To bolster its capabilities, he proposes two possible solutions: increasing recruitment or adopting the Borno model, which involves training civilians to form a fighting unit like the Civilian Joint Taskforce (CJTF).
“This approach has proven successful, with the CJTF fighting alongside the military to nearly vanquish insurgents in the North East,” Bakori said.
Another option Bakori has proposed to TruthNigeria is leveraging the Vigilante Group of Nigeria (VGN), which comprises retired military personnel and able-bodied men trained to defend their lands against terrorists. With more than 1 million members, the VGN has been effective in its efforts. Bakori advocates for the Federal Government to officially adopt the VGN as a fighting unit, harnessing their potential to enhance national security.
US-based security consultant Scott Morgan also suggests that Abuja needs to incorporate various security apparatuses into the Nigerian armed forces. “If you take a look at the US military, there is the US Marines, the National Guard, the Army, Air Force, and the Navy. All combined gives the US a big fighting force,” Morgan said.
Morgan further emphasized the need for Nigeria to build up its intelligence network, such as the Directorate of State Security Services, to infiltrate and detect any attempt by terrorists to attack Nigerians. He also added that Nigeria needed cooperation from countries like the US, France, and Israel.
“The country needs to have military cooperation with countries like the US and Israel, which have good experiences in fighting insurgents,” Morgan said.
However, Nigeria’s defense chief, General Christopher Musa blames the inability of the country to defeat the insurgencies to the reluctance of some countries to sell arms to Nigeria due to human rights concerns, citing “double standards”. “Even with our money, it is difficult getting equipment,” Musa told Aljazeera in January 5, 2025.
Musa acknowledged that despite having the financial resources, Nigeria is struggling to acquire essential military equipment, such as helicopters, drones, and Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles. This shortage exacerbates the country’s struggles in addressing the Islamic militant insurgency in the northeast and the numerous armed groups targeting communities in the northwest and central regions.
Mike Odeh James is a Conflict Reporter for TruthNigeria.
