A Setback to Regional Stability: Security Analysts
By Segun Onibiyo
(Kaduna) In the vast, dusty hinterlands of northeastern Nigeria, a crisis once thought to be fading is roaring back to life.
Boko Haram, the jihadist group infamous for kidnapping schoolgirls and pledging allegiance to ISIS, has intensified its attacks on military bases and villages in Borno State – the heart of its 15-year insurgency. Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum has issued a stark warning: “We are losing ground,” Zulum declared during a Special Expanded Security Meeting held Tuesday in Maiduguri, the state capital.
His remarks come amid a resurgence of terrorist activity that has seen military bases overrun and civilians abducted or killed with alarming frequency.
“In the past few weeks, Boko Haram has dislodged military formations in Wajirko, Sabon Gari, Wulgo, and Izge,” Zulum said in a statement monitored on Channels television. “These attacks, often unchallenged, clearly indicate that we are being pushed back.”
The statement, one of Zulum’s most critical yet, comes after weeks of escalating violence. Multiple security outposts have fallen to militants, with coordinated attacks reported across Damboa, Gamboru Ngala, and Gwoza local government areas. Security analysts say the trend marks a significant setback after years of relative stability.
“This level of coordinated assault against military positions is deeply concerning,” said Dr. Kabiru Adamu, a security consultant and managing director of Beacon Consulting, Abuja, while speaking to TruthNigeria reporter. “It reflects tactical improvements by the insurgents and glaring gaps in Nigeria’s counterinsurgency strategy.”
General Abubakar Haruna, the General Officer Commanding the 7th Division of the Nigerian Army, attended the emergency meeting alongside top military commanders, top police officials, and traditional leaders including the Shehu of Borno, Alhaji Abubakar Garbai El-Kanemi. The Shehu (Shehu is a title for a King in Kanuri language) echoed Zulum’s alarm, noting that large swaths of Guzamala, Marte, Abadam, and Mobbar areas remain under insurgent control, devoid of civil governance.
“These are not just ungoverned spaces – they are governed by terror,” said Chidi Nwaonu, a former British Army officer and West Africa defense analyst in a chat with TruthNigeria correspondent. “The longer they stay out of government reach, the harder they will be to reclaim.
“Boko Haram isn’t just resurgent – it’s evolving,” he told TruthNigeria. “They are exploiting porous borders with Chad and Niger, recruiting disillusioned youth, and using drones to surveil military positions. The federal government’s ‘soft approach’ – which allows surrendered militants to be rehabilitated and reintegrated into communities – has backfired. Imagine seeing the same people who terrorized your village suddenly walking free. How do you rebuild trust in a government that allows that?”
Zulum in his statement acknowledged federal support under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu but stressed that the military must be better equipped, particularly with technology and surveillance tools. “We need to adopt modern warfare strategies. Our proximity to Cameroon, Chad, and Niger demands cross-border intelligence and rapid response capabilities,” he added.
The Shehu of Borno also urged the federal government to prioritize reconstruction of key roads like the Biu-Damboa-Maiduguri and Maiduguri-Dikwa-Ngala routes, vital for both humanitarian and military logistics.
Background: A Fragile Peace Unraveling
Boko Haram, and its splinter faction ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province), have waged a brutal insurgency since 2009, displacing more than two million people and killing 40,000 since 2009. Despite government claims of progress, the northeast remains volatile.
Though the group splintered in 2016 – giving rise to the ISIS-affiliated Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) – both factions remain deadly. And recent events suggest they are regaining ground.
In recent months, TruthNigeria has reported a series of deadly ambushes and mass kidnappings across Borno and Yobe states:
· February 2025: Boko Haram overruns Wulgo garrison, abducts 24 civilians
· March 2025: 17 soldiers killed in Izge attack
· March 2025: ISWAP claims control of Marte in viral video
Security observers fear the resurgence signals a broader strategy by insurgents to recapture territory, disrupt governance, and enforce radical rule in the region.
Gov. Zulum’s warning that Borno is “losing ground” to terrorists has laid bare a growing divide between state officials and Nigeria’s federal government, which insists that progress is being made. For Western observers – especially the United States, which has funneled more than $1 billion in counterterrorism aid into Nigeria since 2015 – the resurgence of Boko Haram raises pressing questions: “Is Africa’s most populous nation faltering in its battle against extremism? And if so, what does that mean for global security?”
Speaking further to TruthNigeria, Dr Adamu warned, “If this escalation is not contained now, we could see a full return to the territorial control Boko Haram exercised in 2014. That would be catastrophic not just for Nigeria but for the entire Lake Chad Basin.”
Segun Onibiyo reports on terrorism and conflict for TruthNigeria.
