Abuja Can Win the War Against Terrorists by Surging the Military: Experts
By Segun Onibiyo
Maiduguri, Borno State – The scream of the muezzin had barely pierced the pre-dawn silence when the fire erupted. A deafening boom rocked the Galtimari neighborhood, sending 14-year-old Hauwa racing barefoot through the dust with her baby brother in her arms.
Her mother, Zainab, shouted from behind as flames burst from what witnesses said was the military armory at Giwa Barracks. “We thought Boko Haram had come again,” Zainab told TruthNigeria by phone, her voice shaking. “You don’t wait to ask questions. You just run.” The fire, captured in viral WhatsApp videos, tore through a section of the 21 Armored Brigade’s compound, just yards from homes and mosques. No official cause has been confirmed, but residents say it reignited an old fear: that the once-isolated Giwa Barracks has become a ticking bomb in the city’s heart.
“It’s not just about Giwa,” said Baba Goni, a community elder. “It’s about whether we are safe anywhere in this country.” That fear is not unfounded. For over a decade, Giwa has symbolized Nigeria’s struggle to contain terrorism. Yet, with each new incident each blast, each clash, each funeral residents are reminded that their safety is precarious, contingent on a fragile status quo.
“The question is no longer whether Nigeria can defeat terrorism,” said retired Col. Hassan Umaru, a counterinsurgency expert. “It’s whether the government even wants to defeat it or just manage it long enough to survive the 2027 elections,” Umaru said.
“They’re not aiming to end terrorism,” said Dr. Angela Obasi, a security analyst with the West African Peace Institute, said to TruthNigeria. “They’re trying to contain it to hold the line until 2027.”
The Barracks That Wouldn’t Fall
Located at 11°47’55” N, 13°10’20” E, Giwa Barracks wasn’t always a symbol of fear. Built in the 1970s on Maiduguri’s outskirts, it served as a training ground for military communications. By 1979, it became the base of the 21 Armored Brigade, charged with security in northeastern Nigeria. But as Maiduguri grew, the city swallowed the barracks. Over the years it became surrounded by neighborhoods like GRA, Kayamla, and Galtimari. Civilian life crept up to its walls just as the insurgency began.
On March 14, 2014, Boko Haram launched a major assault on Giwa Barracks. Their goal: free detained insurgents held without trial. Hundreds escaped. Human rights organizations later reported that over 600 escapees were re-arrested and executed extrajudicially.
It was a gruesome warning both from the insurgents and the state. Giwa had become not just a military post, but a symbol of Nigeria’s internal war. And today, that legacy continues to haunt Maiduguri’s residents, families who live under the daily shadow of barracks, checkpoints, and an ever-present sense of siege.
Fire in Giwa, Fires Across Nigeria
The fire at Giwa comes amid escalating violence on every front. In the northeast, Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) fighters remain entrenched in the Lake Chad basin, attacking supply routes, kidnapping aid workers, and seizing weapons from rural outposts. In the Northwest, more than 30,000 radicalized, terrorist bandits roam freely across Zamfara, Katsina, and Sokoto states, operating like warlords with their own tax regimes and justice systems.
New threats have emerged in the north-central zone, where Lakurawa, Ansaru and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara factions exploit forest terrain and rural poverty. These groups are tied to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, respectively, embedding themselves in hard-to-reach communities. “The military is overstretched, under-resourced, and operating in too many theaters,” warned Dr. Obasi.
Given the current trajectories of criminal groups in the 36 states, what will Nigeria look like in January 2027?
In response to this question, Col. Umaru said: “Picture a nation of fortified cities and lawless frontiers. To actually win against both jihadists and mega-bandits, we’d need to double the army’s size.”
“We need drones, ISR [intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance], and rapid-response units. What we have now is a Cold War army fighting 21st-century insurgencies,” Col. Umaru added.
A Strategic Relocation, or a National Reckoning?
Efforts to relocate Giwa Barracks go back at least a decade. In 2019, Rep. Satomi Ahmad introduced a motion in the House of Representatives urging the federal government to move the base away from civilian areas. The motion passed. Nothing happened.
After this month’s fire, officials have again stayed silent. Locals see it as a metaphor for the state of the country — dangerous, neglected, and adrift. Residents have called not just for relocation but for an overhaul of national security priorities. Yet Abuja, they say, remains unmoved.
Tinubu’s Gamble on Containment
President Bola Tinubu, who campaigned in 2023 on a promise to restore security, faces growing skepticism. Last month, he replaced the heads of the Army, Navy, and Air Force, a move analysts say was more political than strategic. “They want the violence out of the headlines,” said Obasi. “But you can’t suppress a wildfire with spin.”
And yet, the wildfires rage. In Sokoto, families are fleeing renewed attacks by warlord Bello Turji, whose men have burned farms and razed entire villages. In Plateau and Benue States, terrorist-linked communal clashes have returned with new intensity. Armed herders and retaliating militias have turned farmland into battlegrounds. And in Maiduguri, civilians now are showing fear of the very barracks intended to shield them.
Nigeria’s instability bleeds across borders. Fighters, weapons, and ideology flow into Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, while terrorist groups exploit Nigeria as a base of operations. In a region battered by coups and climate shocks, Nigeria’s breakdown threatens to destabilize all of West Africa. Experts warn that without urgent reforms, Abuja could lose more than its credibility. It could lose control entirely.
“The world can’t afford a failed Nigeria,” said Obasi. “Not economically, not diplomatically, and certainly not in terms of terrorism.”
Segun Onibiyo reports on terrorism and conflicts for TruthNigeria
