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HomeNumbers Don’t Lie: Nigeria Losing the War, Says Expat Lawyer

Numbers Don’t Lie: Nigeria Losing the War, Says Expat Lawyer

TruthNigeria Reporters Interview Emmanuel Ogebe

By Luka Binniyat and Mike Odeh James

According to the Nigerian military, troops killed 6,260 terrorists across the entire country in a two-year period, in what the Defence Headquarters described as a sustained counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations nationwide.  

However, between May 2023 and May 2025 (two years of President Tinubu’s administration), at least 6,896 people were killed in Fulani militia attacks in Benue State alone, according to verified data compiled by Amnesty International.

This startling contrast reveals a grim reality: Fulani terrorists killed more civilians in a single Nigerian state than the entire Nigerian military could eliminate nationwide over the same period.

International human rights advocate Emmanuel Ogebe, born and raised in Benue State, described this as a damning indictment of Nigeria’s security performance. “If terrorists can kill more people in Benue State alone than the total number of terrorists the entire Nigerian military has killed across the nation in two years, then we are not winning the war. In fact, we are losing the war,” said Ogebe to TruthNigeria.

“These numbers are not just statistics—they are human lives,” he went on to say. “They reveal the imbalance between state action and terrorist aggression. If the state cannot protect its citizens in one state better than it can fight across the country, then we have a catastrophic failure of national defense.”

Lopsided War

Benue State, located in Nigeria’s Middle Belt, has long been a frontline in deadly attacks attributed to Fulani militia groups, who have targeted largely Christian farming communities. These attacks, often involving village raids, arson, and mass killings, have displaced millions over a decade.

 The data suggests that the violence in Benue is not simply a local security issue but a national emergency. Despite increased military deployments and presidential directives, the scale of destruction in Benue outpaces the national counteroffensive.

 “How can we say we’re making progress when one group of non-state actors in one state has outkilled the entire Nigerian Army’s anti-terror effort nationwide?” Ogebe asked. “That is a strategic failure. Or to quote a failed prior regime, we’ve been ‘technically defeated.’ Let’s be clear, we’re talking about civilian casualties of terrorism versus the number of terrorists foot soldiers killed,” Ogebe told TruthNigeria.

 “For illustration look at last week’s Yelewata massacre. Two policemen were killed; 200 Benue villagers were killed and one Fulani attacker died.

“Based on those numbers, the war isn’t going well, especially when you consider these fatalities are comparable to the full-fledged aerial war currently ongoing between the two nations of Israel and Iran. Since the same Friday of the Yelewata massacre, 24 Israelis have been killed by Iranian missile attacks. 224 Iranians have been killed by Israeli plane bombardment.

 “Not only is the one-night fatality in the single Benue state attack equal to the one-week war between two nations but Israel’s casualty is 10 percent of Iran’s, showing clearly who has the military advantage. The terrorists’ casualty in the Yelewata massacre was less than 0.1 percent and Nigeria’s 99.9 percent!” Ogebe said.

Nigeria’s Failing Counter-Terror Efforts

 Ogebe called on the international community to take notice and pressure the Nigerian government to address what he described as a genocidal campaign against indigenous communities in the Middle Belt.

“Nigeria’s current approach is not working. The body count proves it. We need accountability, international oversight, and a clear shift in strategy. Otherwise, this will only get worse,” Ogebe said.

“Calling a foreign armed invasion and obliteration of your people a ‘clash’ is waging psychological warfare and self-sabotaging yourself,” he went on to say.

 “The figures provide a sobering insight into Nigeria’s worsening internal conflict,” he continued. “They show that while military forces continue to conduct operations in the Northeast, Northwest, and other conflict zones, the deadliest threat to human life in Nigeria remains unabated and underreported: the targeted mass killings in Benue and surrounding states. Stephanos Foundation Security Watch June 20, reported the following attacks in several states:

Plateau State:

• Bassa Local Government Area June 20, 2025 – 2 killed.

• ⁠Bokkos Local Government Area – attacked June 19, – 10 killed.

• ⁠Mangu Local Government Area – attacked June 19, — 6 killed.

Yet in Benue State more bloody attacks:

• Makurdi Local Government Area – Akundu-Tuough – June 12, – 5 killed; • Apa Local Government Area – Edikwu’G’Icho village June 9 – 3 killed.

• Agatu Local Government Area – Bus attacked June 9, – Driver killed.

Kaduna State:

• Kajuru Local Government Area – June 9, – 1 killed and 8 abducted

The attacks in Imo State show genocide expansion:

 • Oguta Local Government Area – June 11, multiple persons killed.

  And in Enugu State

 • Isi-Uzo Local Government Area – attacked June 15 – 4 killed.

 More attacks in Katsina State

• Kankara Local Government Area – attacked on the evening of Thursday, 12th June 12 – 7 residents killed.

Niger State • Kontagora Local Government Area – June 12, 2025. 1 vigilante killed, 9 persons kidnapped.

“No one can objectively look at this data and conclude that things are going well for Nigeria. No wonder terrorists released a video saying they have successfully infiltrated the entire country and are fully ready for war.  We must do better in the face of a potent existential threat!”

Mike Odeh James and Luka Binniyat are conflict reporters for TruthNigeria.

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