By David Otto
Regarding the Niger crisis the most sustainable approach for all stakeholders is to pursue diplomatic channels to restore democracy in Niger within a specific time frame. The military junta proposes three years, but that is too long and lacks a practical breakdown. A transitional government should not exceed 18 months, and it should be headed by civilians prohibited from running for any future legislative or presidential elections. President Bazoum, his family and other government officials should be released immediately.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) cannot guarantee mission success in the event of a military intervention. Niger Republic is not Sierra Leone or The Gambia. The fact is, there is substantial popular support for the coup Leaders. The army and air forces are behind the presidential guards who led the coup; neighboring states Mali , Burkina Faso, Tchad & Algeria , Libya have either pledged direct support for the Niger junta or expressed dissatisfaction with ECOWAS plans to launch an attack on Niger. There seems to be no UN Security Council legal backing for a military intervention in Niger. Many believe an intervention without authorization and for self-defense purposes could be a violation of UN Charter article 2(4).
The Sahel is chock full of terrorist threats— Islamic State in the Maghreb, Al Qaeda, and criminal gangs based on tribal affiliation —all lurking around hills of sand ready to seize real estate in the event of chaos. Just as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant emerged during the period of power vacuum in Iraq after the withdrawal of the US military in 2011, https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/islamic-state it may be argued that jihadist gangs will pop up after the ECOWAS union turns against a former ally. For years they have been held back by a security wall known as the G5 Sahel and the Multinational Joint Task Force. An ECOWAS-led military intervention in Niger will render that wall porous. Trans-border crimes will increase, smuggling of small and light weapons and drugs will skyrocket, and cross-border recruitment of Jihadist fighters will increase.
There is a bigger concern – ECOWAS will need foreign backers from the West. The US 🇺🇸, UK , Germany , France and EU will probably support ECOWAS with arms, money and advice. Russia and China could stand on the side of the military junta alongside Mali , Burkina Faso and Guinea. Potentially, a proxy war replica as seen in the case of Ukraine could emerge and the region will be in flames. Whereas ECOWAS may be planning for a quick battle, this could turn out to be an unending war of attrition in West Africa and even spread further.
ECOWAS should accept a shorter transition period and regulate the composition of the transitional government to exclude participation in any legislative and presidential elections. It should request the military junta to guarantee the safety of President Bazoum, his family and other detained government officials.
Meanwhile, the West Africa block must activate the ECOWAS standby force in readiness for any military intervention as anticipated invitation under the legal framework of the Lomé Declaration of July 2000 setting the terms of response to unconstitutional changes of government.
A coup pandemic is spreading across the West and Central Africa region at breakneck speed. The best method to cure coup pandemic is to prevent it from spreading further by learning lessons from previous cases – the window for military intervention is far gone after 24 hrs of a coup. Military action now will only destroy and destabilize the region further and no guarantee it will achieve its mission.
David Otto is an independent Global Counter Terrorism PVE/CVE Consultant based in London. David regularly appears, writes opinion reports and comments on global news channels CNN, Fox News, Aljazeera, BBC World , BBC Focus on Africa, TRT News , VOX Africa, Arise News.
