Northern Unity Cracks as Old Foes Unite Against Tinubu
By Ezinwanne Onwuka
(Abuja) When Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, former Special Adviser on Political Matters to President Tinubu, declared, “Nobody can become president of Nigeria without northern support,” it was not a joke, it was a fact.
In Nigeria, campaign promises do not win elections. Regional powerbrokers do. And every road to Aso Rock (the presidential villa) runs through the North.
Muslim-Muslim Ticket Took Tinubu to Aso Rock
The Northern region is Nigeria’s largest voting bloc, especially the Northwest (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara States). For decades, it has been the kingmaker region.
The last general election in 2023 tested the country’s fragile balance of religion and region.
Tinubu, a Southern Muslim, broke convention by choosing Kashim Shettima, another Muslim, as his running mate. It sparked outrage across the majority-Christian South but the gamble worked. The North delivered.
Ahead of the 2027 elections, the political weight of the North is once again being courted. Tinubu, now two years into his first term, is already trading it for re-election.
The North’s Political Might
The North is not just a voting bloc, it is the gatekeeper of Nigeria’s presidency.
The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Northern Nigeria’s leading socio-cultural body, laid bare the region’s numerical and institutional dominance.
According to the ACF Chairman Bashir Dalhatu, “The North has 19 out of the 36 states, and we also have the FCT as a veritable component. We have a majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives, the National Economic Council, and the Council of State.”
He added: “The North occupies close to 75 percent of Nigeria’s land area and about 60 percent of the population. An area this big and this strong can never be subdued by any opponent, provided we remain united and place our region above all other considerations. United we stand, divided we fall.”
Tinubu’s 2027 Campaign Kicks Off in the North
Last weekend, President Bola Tinubu’s Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, met with the Northern Caucus of the National Forum of Former Legislators in Abuja. His mission was to rally Northern political elders behind Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign.
“President Tinubu is…a national leader who has carried every region along,” Gbajabiamila said. “From critical infrastructure to policy reforms, the North is benefiting from a government that believes in equity and shared prosperity.”
The Northern Caucus responded to Gbajabiamila’s appeal by endorsing the continuity of the southern presidency.
The forum’s national chairman, Nnanna Igbokwe, described the decision as a “bold and patriotic stand.”
The North Fights for Survival, Politicians Scramble for Votes
While the political class debates who should lead, northern Nigeria remains under siege. States like Borno Zamfara, Katsina, Plateau, and Benue continue to reel with attacks from extremist militias and are barely hanging on.
Political experts say the political class is ignoring the elephant in the room.
“That politicians can, without irony, pursue votes in a region grappling with daily violence (banditry, terrorism, kidnapping), speaks volumes about the normalization of insecurity in the political calculus. It also reflects a transactional, not transformational, model of leadership,” Collins Nweke, a former Green Councillor at Ostend City Council in Belgium, told TruthNigeria.
“By continuing the ritual of political courtship while communities are razed, citizens kidnapped, and schools shuttered, leaders signal that votes are more valuable than lives. The North’s greatest cry is not for power, but for peace.”
But even as endorsements roll in, not all northern voices are in harmony.
Two political heavyweights, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, are joining forces to challenge Tinubu in 2027. Formerly bitter rivals, they are now allies under the banner of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
El-Rufai, once a key architect of Tinubu’s 2023 victory, now calls the administration a “tragedy.”
“Having contributed to bringing about this tragedy to Nigeria, I feel I must contribute to correcting it,” El-Rufai said. He accuses the Tinubu government of being disconnected from the plight of ordinary Nigerians and warns that it could destroy “what remains of Nigeria’s social capital” if allowed to continue beyond 2027.
“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has proven to be one of the most incompetent, disconnected, and anti-people governments in Nigeria’s democratic history,” Abubakar said. “This reality cannot and will not be ignored.”
Ezinwanne Onwuka writes human interest and feature stories for TruthNigeria.
