Abuja’s Problem not Resources but Resolve: Expert
By Mary Kiara
(Abuja) – A U.S. military cargo aircraft touched down in Nigeria on January 13, delivering equipment meant to strengthen the country’s fight against jihadist-linked terrorism. Five days later, armed Fulani terrorists stormed three churches in Kurmin Wali, Kajuru County, Southern Kaduna, abducting 166 Christian worshippers during Sunday services.
Within the same week, four civilians were seized along a nearby highway, while six other residents were abducted in another Sunday attack.
The timing has sharpened a question now being asked in Washington and Abuja: Will more weapons disrupt Nigeria’s terror networks or reinforce a system experts say profits from denial and delay?
‘We’ve Gotten More Aggressive’
U.S. Africa Command says the new approach is about pressure and capability.
“We’ve gotten a lot more aggressive and are working with partners to target, kinetically, the threats, mainly ISIS,” Lt. Gen. John Brennan, deputy commander of U.S. Africa Command, told AFP.
Brennan said Washington is expanding intelligence sharing and easing restrictions on military equipment so Nigerian forces can act faster.
“From Somalia to Nigeria, the problem set is connected; we’re trying to take it apart.”
The stepped-up cooperation follows U.S. airstrikes on (claimed) Islamic State linked targets in northwestern Nigeria on Christmas Day, a rare move that underscored American frustration with jihadist expansion across West Africa.
Weapons Arrive, but Violence Spikes
Despite the strikes, attacks have not slowed as 176 residents of Kajuru County have been abducted in one week. 166 Christian worshippers were abducted on January 18, days later, four more civilians were abducted; six other residents were abducted in another Sunday attack.
Government officials initially dismissed reports of the church abductions as false, before the kidnappings were confirmed through on-site reporting by TruthNigeria and survivor testimony.
Families say the abductors have since demanded 17 motorcycles to begin negotiations, a rare request. Analysts suggest the kidnappers may need the bikes to move such a large group through 20 miles of forest terrain to their forest hub of Rijana near the border with Niger State.
In the same period, Fulani terrorists torched vast rice, yam, and cassava fields in Benue state, threatening farmers with death to prevent harvesting.
In Plateau state, seven young miners, between the ages of 15 to 28 were killed by Fulani militants on January 22, leading to calls for self-defense.
Alex Barbir, an American missionary who spoke to TGnews told mourners during the burial of the seven miners, “Do not watch yourselves be slaughtered by terrorists, you must defend yourselves.”
In Borno state, on January 23, Boko Haram insurgents raided a village, killing a pastor and four other residents.
Terrorism That Pays
While the attacks continued, Nigeria’s federal government sought to counter growing international scrutiny by contracting DCI Group, a Republican-linked lobbying and strategic communications firm, to reframe its security record in the United States.
Dr. Sulaiman Ishak, a criminologist and security expert in the Department of Criminology and Security Studies at the Federal University Dutse warned that the Nigerian government’s reported $9 million lobbying contract in the United States could undermine the country’s security posture and expose internal weaknesses.
Speaking to local media, Ishak said the apparent goal of the contract is to counter allegations that Christian communities in Nigeria are being neglected, isolated, or targeted for violence. “While Nigeria’s international image may improve temporarily,” he said, “the arrangement risks exposing how the state actually operates internally under the guise of protection, raising concerns about sovereignty and accountability.”
According to SBM Intelligence – a security intelligence firm, between July 2024 and June 2025, confirmed ransom payments in Nigeria exceeded $1.8 million, while total demands surpassed $33 million.
At an estimated $4,000 per victim, analysts within the TruthNigeria project estimate the 176 captives in southern Kaduna represent at least $704,000 in anticipated revenue from a single cluster of attacks.
Air Power vs Ground Reality
Some analysts question whether intelligence flights and airstrikes alone can disrupt armed groups embedded in rural areas where state authority is weak or absent.
Kabir Adamu, CEO of Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, told local media that recent data shows little evidence Nigeria’s counterterror strategy is reversing violence.
“Based on available data, it is difficult to say security officials are moving in the right direction or making meaningful progress,” Adamu said. “From 2024 to 2025, more than 10,000 Nigerians were killed and over 8,000 were abducted.”
Local journalists and residents say militant casualties from recent strikes remain unverified. Asked about the effectiveness of the operations at the U.S.-Nigeria security meeting in Abuja, Mohammed Idris, Nigeria’s information minister described the effort to AFP as “a work in progress.”
Denial as a Strategic Weakness
Critics say Nigeria’s deeper problem is not capability but intent.
Former presidential candidate Gbenga Hashim said the initial denial of the Kurmin Wali kidnapping on Jan. 18 reflects a pattern that undermines security cooperation.
“Suppressing information has become a substitute for decisive action,” Hashim told journalists. “Communities are pressured into silence instead of protected.”
Analysts warn that denial erodes trust, weakens intelligence gathering, and benefits armed groups, the very outcome foreign partners say they are trying to prevent.
A Test for Washington
Nigeria’s government says the United States has pledged to deliver long-delayed equipment, including drones, helicopters, and spare parts purchased over the past five years.
“We want Nigerians to know this partnership is working,” the information minister told AFP.
But in Washington, Nigeria remains designated a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom violations, a status that continues to drive congressional scrutiny.
Adamu said the problem is not firepower alone, but the absence of a comprehensive counterterror strategy.
“Nigeria has focused almost entirely on kinetic responses without addressing terrorist’s recruitment, funding, or movement,” he said. “As some fighters are killed, new ones emerge. Terror groups continue to spread across the northeast, north-central, and northwest.”
Lives in the Balance
As negotiations loom and captives remain in forest camps, experts warn that without enforcement replacing denial, terror groups will continue to calculate risk and profit.
“The question is not whether Nigeria has partners,” Ambrose said.
“It’s whether the state intends to dismantle the economy that terror has become.”
Mary Kiara reports on terrorism from Lagos.
